A file picture shows the test of a North Korean missile engine.[Yonhap News Photo]
North Korea could launch an intercontinental ballistic missile after adding a "yet-unseen" reentry vehicle if it's willing to bear a failed test or make a demonstration launch of a shorter missile, a US expert said.
There have been doubts about North Korea's ability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead to be mounted on an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), despite its claim to have mastered re-entry technology.
Yet, Pyongyang could launch a road-mobile KN-08 ICBM and its advanced version KN-14 after adding a yet-unseen reentry vehicle, John Schilling said in his article published by 38 North, the website of a US research institute.
"Such a test would probably fail and embarrass the regime, but it could fail in a way that provides Pyongyang’s engineers with critical data going forward," he said. "North Korea usually fails with their first test of a new missile, and usually figures out how to make it work in the end."
An incomplete missile can be mounted on a mobile launcher if the reentry vehicle is stored separately, the expert said, describing the mobile launcher as the "most expedient" way to deliver the missile to the launch site.
"If this is the case, we might expect a demonstration launch in the next few days, allowing time to mate the reentry vehicle and conduct a final checkout of the integrated system," Schilling said.
Or Pyongyang can fire a missile with a dummy third stage containing only the guidance and payload systems, with ballast in place of the engines and fuel, he said.
He suggested North Korean engineers almost certainly understand that any test of a new ICBM rushed to meet a political deadline will likely result in failure. "If they have had the courage to tell their boss this, then Kim might settle for posturing with shorter-range missiles."
reporter
Park Sae-jin
swatchsjp@ajunews.com
