[FOCUS] N. Korea missile test triggers plenty of speculation and doubt

By Park Sae-jin Posted : May 15, 2017, 16:21 Updated : May 15, 2017, 16:21

[Yonhap Photo]


North Korea's new ballistic missile test triggered plenty of speculation and doubt especially over whether the nuclear-armed country has mastered reentry technology, though experts regard it as a prelude or a substantial advance to developing an operational intercontinental ballistic missile.

Pyongyang insisted the successful launch of a "medium long-range strategic" missile verified "the homing feature of the warhead under the worst re-entry situation and accurate performance of detonation system". 

"The test-fire aimed at verifying the tactical and technological specifications of the newly developed ballistic rocket capable of carrying a large-size heavy nuclear warhead," according to the North's official KCNA news agency.

The South's military was doubtful, saying the North's claims about reentry technology have yet to be verified. "We believe there is a low possibility," an official from Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff told a press briefing.

Pyongyang claimed the missile called "Hwasong-12" traveled 787 kilometers (488 miles) after reaching a maximum altitude of 2,111.5 kilometers. It's the first time a North Korean missile has reached such a high altitude, and KCNA said it was fired intentionally at a steep angle for the security of other countries.​
 

[Yonhap Photo]


KCNA pictures showed a single-stage intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). Experts saw it as a bridge between ICBMs and Musudan missiles with an estimated range of more than 3,000 kilometers and ICBMs which usually have a range of more than 5,500 km.

The test represents "a level of performance never before seen" as it would have flown a distant of some 4,500 km if launched on a maximum trajectory, John Schilling, a US missile expert, said in an article published by 38 North, the website of a US research institute.

It appears to have not only demonstrated an IRBM that might enable them to reliably strike the US base at Guam, but more importantly, may represent "a substantial advance" to developing an ICBM.

"The possible testing of ICBM subsystems in this low-key manner may be a North Korean hedge against the possibility of such action," Schilling said, adding Sunday's test may be the "first successful flight".

"What would change the strategic balance is an ICBM capable of reaching the US mainland. This is not that missile but it might be a testbed, demonstrating technologies and systems to be used in future ICBMs," he said.
 

[Yonhap Photo]


This missile would allow North Korea to conduct at least some of the testing necessary to develop an operational ICBM, without actual launches, if it includes the same engines, he said.

Kim Dong-yup,  a professor at the Institute for Far East Studies at Kyungnam University, suggested that North Korea appeared to have tested an upgraded Pukguksong-2 missile, not Musudan. 

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has vowed to launch more missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, claiming Pyongyang has acquired re-entry technology, despite doubts about its ability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead to be mounted on an ICBM. He said in his New Year's address that Pyongyang had reached the final stage of ICBM development.
 

[Yonhap Photo]


In February, the North claimed to have successfully launched a Pukguksong-2 missile. At that time Pyongyang said it has acquired improved technologies related to a nuclear warhead, re-entry and guided flight.

Last month, North Korea displayed an array of strategic new missiles, including the same one tested on Sunday, in a military parade marking the April 15 birth anniversary of North Korea's late president and founder Kim Il-Sung.

Lim Chang-won = cwlim34@ajunews.com

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