[COLUMN] New N. Korea policy needed to induce internal division

By Kim Sang-soon Posted : October 16, 2017, 14:30 Updated : October 16, 2017, 14:30

[Yonhap News Photo]


(This column was contributed by Kim Sang-soon, President of the East Asia Peace Research Association and an expert in international relations.)

Since the 6th nuclear test on September 3, the U.N. Security Council has swiftly passed new "No. 2375" sanctions against North Korea. Even China, which has always been lukewarm, participated actively (?), and it seems that the regime faces a different system crisis than before.

The regime is obviously nervous. North Korea's provocation is possible before and after the 19th party congress on October 18 because there are considerable complaints in the North about China.

China's practical sanctions are a direct and significant blow to Pyongyang as North Korean workers continue to return home, resource-constrained exports to China will be restricted, and Chinese tourists will stay away. The hardship caused by China's economic sanctions is serious because 90 percent of North Korea's external trade comes through China.

Therefore, unless North Korea, which fully controls all aspects of its economy, as well as individual job choices, wages, imports and exports, cannot ride out such unprecedented sanctions, it will face a political and economic crisis.

Exports of North Korea's anthracite coal, which once guaranteed profits, were monopolized by central government bodies, the military and security authorities. However, North Korea's continued nuclear and missile development led to strengthened sanctions that allowed ordinary companies to ship coal.

North Koreans can buy items, which were forbidden for the purpose of exporting to China, by cheap prices at marketplaces called "Jangmadang". How should we accept reports that North Korean people welcome sanctions?

Workers dispatched as a means of earning dollars were returning home due to sanctions and compare the experience of their overseas stay with their life at home, posing a challenge to the regime.

Propaganda activities that the North's hardship is due to China's sanctions will fan anti-Chinese sentiment for a while. However, as China and the international community continue to sanction North Korea, the patience of people will reach the critical point. This can also be a challenge to the regime.

U.N. sanctions and China's active involvement brought difficulties to North Korea and its people as a whole. But the fact that North Korean can buy items such as coal easily at cheap prices and spend a warm winter, posing a possible challenge to the regime.

South Korea's new administration of President Moon Jae-in tried to focus on dialogue in the early stage rather than sanctions. After North Korea's sixth nuclear test, it cannot but help put emphasis on sanctions.

The cost of 'dialogue' and 'sanctions' is both enormous and the outcome is uncertain. Therefore, a new idea is needed to establish a different policy. The North Korean regime is faced with many internal challenges. Would not it be more effective and efficient to develop a policy that could be a fatal weakness for North Korea?

For example, what are the boomerang elements of projects pushed by North Korea to prop up the regime? What are the factors that will enable North Koreans to reach a critical point? What are our policies that can cause internal divisions?

A 'third attempt' is needed simultaneously with dialogue and sanctions. The time has come to take the initiative that would induce internal divisions and challenges to the North's social system.

 
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